Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.