🔗 Share this article

Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.